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Folks, we've got the rare double-revenge game on Thursday night. quarterback used to be the starting quarterback in Washington. His old team now starts , who of course used to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings, and was the architect of the Minnesota Miracle. (Really, we could call this a triple-revenge game, because Washington running back spent most of his career starring in Minnesota.) Cousins' team enters this game on a hot streak, having won three games in a row. Keenum's team has won only one game this season, and it was against the , which barely counts. Both teams are dealing with some injury i sues, but as they say,
Christian Yelich Jersey you've got to play the games on the schedule, and this game is on the schedule tonight (8:20 p.m., NFL Network, stream on , try for free).Let's break things down. When the Vikings have the ball You like that?!? If "that" refers to a heavy dose of play-action pa sing that should be modeled by other teams around the NFL, then yes, I like it very much. It's that spike in play-fakes that has turned the Vikings from a team with a strong running game into a team with a strong offense. Through the first four weeks of the season, Minnesota averaged 324.3 yards and 21 points per game, while ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. In three weeks since, the Vikes have spiked to 480 yards and 36 points per game, and they've shot all the way up to fifth in offensive DVOA on the season. The difference has almost exclusively been based on Cousins' performance. (and to a somewhat le ser extent, backup ) has been dominant all season. In Weeks 1 through 4, Cook ran 77 times for 410 yards (5.77 per carry) and five scores, adding 15 catches for 114 more yards. In Weeks 5 through 7, Cook ran 62 times for 315 yards (5.08) per carry and three more touchdowns, adding nine catches for 106 yards on top of that. His per game averages: 23 touches for 131 total yards in Weeks 1 through 4, and 24 touches for 140 yards in Weeks 5 through 7. It's been a different story for Cousins. Cousins Week 1-4 Week 5-7 Comp 64 68 Att 99 90 Comp % 64.6% 75.6% Yards 735 976 YPA 7.4 10.8 TD 3 10 INT 2 1 QB Rtg 88.6 142.6 % PA 27.0% 45.8% PA Comp 18 32 PA Att 28 42 PA Yards 188 592 PA TD 1 7 PA INT 1 0 Go ahead and look at that "% PA" line, folks. This is what NFL teams should be doing. Play-action pa sing is significantly
Jarlin Garcia Jersey more efficient than drop-back pa sing, and research has shown that it is neither dependent on "establishing the run" nor a play-type that declines in efficiency as it is used more and more often. It's what's helped Cousins become the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 300-plus yards and record a pa ser rating of at least 135.0 in three consecutive games. If it can do that for Kirk Cousins, imagine what it can do for others.The Vikings' pa s game will be without one of its top weapons on Thursday, though, as is expected to mi s the game with a hamstring injury after not practicing all week. He'll be replaced by Olabisi Johnson for the most part, though it's worth noting that the team shifted No. 2 tight end Jr. into the slot for a bunch of snaps after Thielen's exit from last week's game.Washington's defense has been below-average on almost all fronts this season, and enters this game dealing with several injuries. Safety is out, while fellow defensive backs and are listed as questionable but expected to play. Norman has struggled throughout the season, allowing a 134.2 pa ser rating on throws in his direction, per Pro Football Focus, as well as a league-high five touchdowns. Ostensible No. 2 corner has been far better (34.3 pa ser rating, 0 touchdowns, 3 interceptions), so it'll be interesting to see how Washington chooses to deploy its corners on Thursday, and whether Norman or Dunbar shadows with Thielen out.If you're thinking Washington might be able to stop the Minnesota run game, you may be waiting a while for that to happen. Cook, as mentioned, has been spectacular, and
Martin Prado Jersey the offensive line has been excellent clearing the way for him and Mattison. The Vikings rank seventh in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards per carry, while Washington's defensive front ranks 26th in Adjusted Line Yards allowed. There's some talent on this defense, but they have been getting creamed up front. That should not be expected to change on Thursday night. When Washington has the ball Things could be ugly on this side of the ball. and remain out.
Jon Berti Jersey Adrian Peterson is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and has basically said he's going to shoot himself up with painkillers in order to play against his former team. The receiving options beyond rookie are basically non-existent.The Minnesota defense, meanwhile, has forced multiple turnovers in three of seven games, and at least one turnover in three more. In games not played against the ' abomination of a secondary, Case Keenum is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with six touchdowns against four interceptions and four fumbles.Interim coach Bill Callahan has been adamant that he wants to Establish The Run. That worked fine against the Dolphins, who in fairne s to them could probably win the SEC West. Peterson carried 23 times for 118 yards. Good for him. It was not as succe sful agains the , who are undefeated and look like the best team in the NFC West. Peterson's 20 carries went for only 81 yards, and nine of those 20 carries and 49 of those 81 yards came on the team's opening drive. He ran 11 times for 32 yards the rest of the day.The Minnesota defense has been better agains the run (seventh in DVOA) than the pa s (14th), so far this season, and it's not like the Washington run game (28th) has actually been good this year. Callahan is just one of those guys who seems to think that you run to win instead of winning to run. One of the first things he said when he took over was that they needed to run more because they ranked last in the league in rush attempts. Smart observers pointed out that they were 0-5 at the time and ranked last in rushing because they had to throw to catch up in the second half after being one of the run-heaviest teams in the league in the first half of games, but not finding any succe s with it.If they try to turn this into a game where Peterson controls the offense, they will very likely lose. That's especially true because the Vikings' cornerbacks have been a bit friendlier to opponents than usual this season. No. 1 corner is having a tough season, allowing 30 completions on 36 throws in his direction, for 271 yards and three scores. No. 2 corner has
Curtis Granderson Jersey yielded 33 completions on 48 attempts, giving up 323 yards and three scores while picking off one pa s. and have been just OK. has had the most succe s (59.9 pa ser rating) but he is basically the No. 4 corner and has given up completions on 11 of 16 pa ses thrown his way as well. He's just the only one who hasn't been beaten for a touchdown yet.The problem for Washington's pa s offense is they don't have any threats outside of McLaurin. Keenum, , and are just 78 of 119 (65.5 percent) for 664 yards (5.58 per attempt), four touchdowns, and nine interceptions on throws to , , , Robert Davis, , Vernon Davis, and . That's a 59.7 pa ser rating. Gro s.Odds: Vikings -16Prediction: Vikings 31, Washington 13